CommuTalk Reporter
HARARE: Zimbabwe is likely going to receive average to below average rainfall during the first three months of the coming rain season, but with chances of receiving average to above average during the second half of the season, a senior Meteorological Services Department (MSD) official said on Wednesday.
Addressing journalists at the close of a three-day 29th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-29) in the capital, MSD director Rebecca Manzou said the bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period of October to December (OND) 2024 including Mauritius and central Madagascar, apart from north-western part of Democratic Republic of Congo where above-normal rainfall is expected.
She said the rainfall forecast for October-November-December 2024 for regions such as Central DRC, northern fringes of Zambia, eastern most Malawi, Tanzania, most of Mozambique and Zimbabwe indicates increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall.
She said that rainfall forecast for November-December 2024-January 2025 in regions like Central and southern Angola, eastern most DRC, North-western Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, much of Namibia, western Malawi, central to southern Mozambique, eSwatini and north-eastern South Africa shows increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall.
“The period October to March is the main period of interest for this outlook for Southern Africa. Owing to the differences and evolution patterns in the predominant rainfall-bearing systems, the rain season has been subdivided into three overlapping three-month periods (i.e., OND, NDJ, DJF and JFM)” said Manzou.
She said increased probability of normal to above normal rain conditions is forecasted consistently across the October to March 2024/25 period for the central part of SADC region consisting of Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and central Mozambique as well as the small island state of Mauritius.
“Increased probability of normal to below normal conditions during the October to December (OND) period is forecasted for south-western Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and north-east South Africa,” said Manzou. She said the long-term median rainfall for October-November-December increases from Southwest to Northeast over contiguous SADC in either case.
The November – December-January long-term median total rainfall shows maximum of above 500 millimetres over much of Malawi, Zambia, Angola, southern half of DRC, central and Northern Mozambique as well as Mauritius, Madagascar and Seychelles, which indicates average to above average rainfall during that period, said Manzou.
“The remainder of the region receives rainfall less than 400 millimetres, gradually decreasing south-westwards to southwest of South Africa and Namibia where the median rainfall is below 100 millimetres.”
Manzou said the long-term median for December-January-February rainfall shows maximum of above 600 millimetres over much of Malawi, Zambia, Angola, southern half of DRC, central and northern Mozambique as well as Mauritius, Madagascar and Seychelles with the remainder of the region receiving rainfall less than 400 millimetres, gradually decreasing south-westwards to southwest South Africa and Namibia where the median rainfall is below 100 millimetres.
